EXCLUSIVE: NOAA meteorologist
From Tropics to Technology
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is busy as you may expect this time of the year, with Tropical Storm Isaac andTropical Storm Joyce. The Quick Times asked to speak to the NHC, and we got a response. Since the NHC is too busy tracking the tropics, we interviewed Neal Dorst, a meteorologist at a research division of NOAA the "sister organization" of the NHC, he says . He works in a laboratory, where him and his colleagues, collect data from inside the hurricanes. Dorst adds he also “carrys out theoretical and modeling studies, and then write scientific papers to impartwhat we've learned to others." He and colleagues also suggest improvementsto the NHC.
Right Now, Tropical Storm Isaac is in the Atlantic,and it may make landfall multiple places. The NHC releases predictions every six hours, 24 hours a day. We asked Dorst what happens between the release of advisories and forecast cones. He said "The hurricane specialists are watching the satellite loops, reading the incoming aircraft reconnaissance data and consulting various computer models." After that he said that they assess the strength and position of the system. They afterwards meet and discuss each other’s prediction. They do this every six hours all 24 hours a day. Dorst goes on to add, "Don't worry; they work in eight hours shifts so they don't get too tired."
We soon went on to ask what it is like at the NHC, how many people are working there? How many are predicting hurricanes? Dorst told us there are 65 people total. 30 are meteorologist and 12 are hurricane specialist. The rest of the sixty-five are in the Tropical Analysis and Forecast Branch or the Technical Service Branch. The Tropical Analysis team predicts high seas forecast for the entire Atlantic Ocean.
We went on to ask Dorst what his divisions doing during Tropical Storm Isaac. Dorst said they launched there P-3aircraft to Barbados. Seven of the scientist flew on commercial flight to Barbados also. Starting at 4 p.m. Wednesday they have been conducting flights into Isaac. Dorst Says the reason they conduct these operations is to "...collect Doppler radar data from the storm's core and transmit that information in real time to various computer modelers who will 'ingest' that data into their fine-scale models to test how well those do in forecasting changes in Isaac's structure and intensity."
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| The P-3 Research aircraft. Courtesy: NASA |
Earlier this Month, NOAA changed their prediction. We asked Dorst why they did this?,”One of the factors which has a large influence on Atlantic hurricane season activity is whether the Pacific Ocean is in an El Niño by the time hurricane season began. An El Nino tends to increase the vertical wind shear over the Atlantic and depress hurricane activity. But the warm pool in the eastern Pacific was slow to develop and it's suppression of hurricane activity won't become dominant until later in the season." With this mild winter for parts of the country, we asked did that factor with the hurricane season. Dorst answered, "Probably not. There doesn't seem to be much of a correlation between multitude spring weather and summer time tropical activity." He was not sure and directed us to another NOAA meteorologist.We contacted him and as soon as we hear back, we will post it right away.
Technology has improved immensely in past years and we wondered how that is making forecasting by the NHC more accurate. He says that their computers look at past years and tell history of storms. This helps immensely he says. He adds that the computer calculates data from aircraft in past years too. Here's an example he gave us of how technology helps, "Such concepts as eye wall replacement cycles and dry air intrusion came out of decades of research."
Not only did we want to want to learn about the NHC, we wanted to learn about the people there. He says he was interested in clouds and storms and then called himself a "weather weenie". He says he has met people who "stumbled" into this industry. He thinks if you have a large interest in the weather, it would be a very satisfying career.
We would like to thank Neal Dorst for his time.
Sources:NOAA. NASA Aircraft Captures Windy Details in Hurricane's Ups and Downs. N.d. Photograph. NOAA. NASA. NASA. Web. <http://www.nasa.gov/centers/goddard/news/topstory/2006/hurricane_life.html>.
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